MN farm country closes out 2022 in drought
Written by Jonathan Eisenthal
Minnesota has been under a climate regime of greater than average wetness for more than a decade, according to Pete Boulay. Boulay is an assistant state climatologist at the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. So, it’s surprising that portions of Minnesota have finished out a second year of drought.
Profound climate change has gotten Minnesotans, especially farmers, used to wet conditions. Soil moisture in the spring of 2022 delayed farmers from planting their crop. But then the precipitation spigot turned off.
“The 2010s were the wettest decade on record, so everybody got used to a surplus of water,” Boulay said. “We haven’t had a bad drought since the years 1987 through 1989 — I mean a multi-year drought. In 2012 we did have a pretty severe drought, but it was only about a year. In the current period, we have had two intense drought over these two years. We are not quite used to these droughts and the impacts we have seen. Climate change has meant that we were getting wetter. What it goes to show is that we can have a serious drought, even in a wetter regime.”
Precipitation in the Twin Cities was 9.5 inches below normal since June 1. But how much moisture is actually in the soil now?
The Southwest Outreach and Research Station in Lamberton has been tracking soil moisture for decades. As of Nov. 1, the soil moisture measured in the first 5 feet of depth was about 3.7 inches or about 1.3 inches short of normal.
“The worst of it is in the Twin Cities and extending southwest – that’s the heart of the drought,” Boulay said.
But, put an asterisk next to the drought designation because some parts of the state escaped.
“There are some areas of the state that are not in any drought,” Boulay said. “If you go to the far southeastern corner, to Houston County, there’s no drought. Or even in Central Minnesota. There’s an area from Mille Lacs, Morrison, Todd counties — they don’t have drought at all. It’s the tale of where did the storm track set up in the spring, summer, and fall?”
La Niña
One element driving the current dynamic is La Niña. This is a phenomenon caused by cooler than normal surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It’s predicted that this winter will bring the third La Niña in a row. The last triple La Niña was the winter of 1998 through the winter of 2001.
“La Niña shifts the jet stream, so that it goes up farther north, and then comes down from Canada, so we get a northwest flow,” Boulay said. “They’ll have more Alberta clippers coming through. That means a greater chance of precipitation in the north, equal chances of above or below normal in Central Minnesota, and below normal precipitation across the rest of the state.”
The fall of 2012 is the closest analogy to current conditions, when the soil froze while still dry.
“Luckily, we got bailed out by a wet spring (in 2013),” Boulay said. “By June, we had close to average soil moisture. So, it did come back. …This coming year, we’ll have to wait and see.”
Here’s deeper look into the drought from the Minnesota State Climatology Office. Look at the soil moisture graph at Lamberton here.
